Broader Energy Carveout

10%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The initial tanker proves politically and operationally manageable, leading Washington to formalize a larger but tightly monitored diesel carveout. The move would be framed as an emergency inflation and supply measure rather than a broad sanctions reset.

What it moves

Energy−1.0%
Consumer Cyclicals+0.8%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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