Possible scenario
Limited Strike Lands
25% Chance
A Houthi drone or missile gets through Saudi defenses, but damage is localized and repairs begin quickly. The market reaction is centered on crude prices and Gulf-exposed assets rather than a global risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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