Possible scenario
Alerts Stay Contained
45% Chance
Saudi air defenses continue to intercept or clear incoming Houthi threats without confirmed damage to population centers or energy infrastructure. The pattern remains disruptive but below the threshold for a major Saudi retaliation or a large oil-market repricing.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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