Possible scenario
Starlink Restored, Talks Continue
45% Chance
The most likely path is a technical or contractual fix that restores most Starlink capacity within Zelensky's 48-hour window while Steve Witkoff carries the Western security-guarantees package to Moscow. Russia does not immediately accept the plan, but channels remain open through the Norway process and U.S. mediation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications +0.4%
- Industrials -0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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