Possible scenario
Starlink Limits Persist
20% Chance
The outage or usage limits persist beyond the stated 48-hour target, intensifying Ukrainian criticism of SpaceX, Elon Musk, and U.S. officials. Negotiations over security guarantees continue, but the communications dispute becomes a parallel diplomatic problem.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Telecommunications -0.5%
- Technology -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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