Possible scenario
CFTC Litigation Returns
28% Chance
The CFTC or allied public-interest groups argue that local election contracts create greater manipulation, integrity, and public-interest risks than national races. Even after Kalshi’s 2026 court win, the move into thousands of local contests gives regulators a narrower factual basis for renewed action.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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