Possible scenario
Sanctions Unity Hardens
40% Chance
The most likely path is that Brussels holds the line after the failed energy ceasefire and refuses any Russia sanctions relief tied to diesel or refined products. EU officials prioritize sanctions credibility and Ukraine’s energy security over a narrow fuel-market deal with Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Utilities -0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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