Possible scenario
Energy War Escalates
25% Chance
Russia responds to the EU refusal by continuing or intensifying attacks on Ukraine’s grid, while Kyiv expands refinery and fuel-logistics strikes inside Russia. This is a higher-impact but still plausible scenario because the attempted ceasefire has already collapsed.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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