Possible scenario
Pay Deal Contains Strike
40% Chance
The Irish government, ICTU, SIPTU and Fórsa reach a compromise on inflation-linked wage increases, limiting the strike to a short disruption. This is the most likely outcome because Ireland has a recent record of centralized public-pay bargaining and both unions and ministers have incentives to avoid prolonged economic damage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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