Possible scenario
Major Infrastructure Strike
15% Chance
A higher-impact operation damages energy, power, port, or undersea infrastructure in a way that resembles the Nord Stream precedent. This remains less likely than harassment because it risks a sharper NATO response, but the warning explicitly points to wider operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -2.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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