Possible scenario
Limited Sabotage Wave
30% Chance
Several small-scale disruptions occur in NATO or EU states, consistent with Russia’s gray-zone pattern: arson, rail interference, drone incursions, or cable tampering. Damage is localized and deniable, keeping the response below direct military retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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