NATO Spillover Risk
−0.7%
A Russian missile or drone incident near NATO territory raises the risk of direct alliance involvement, though all parties still have strong incentives to avoid open NATO-Russia conflict. This is a lower-probability but higher-impact branch because previous cross-border incidents have produced rapid consultations and temporary market stress.
What it moves
- Industrials+1.7%
- Consumer Services−0.9%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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