Coercive Strike Cycle
−0.3%
Russia continues using ballistic strikes on Kyiv to pressure Ukraine after the Abu Dhabi deadlock, but stops short of a major new ground offensive or NATO-facing escalation. This is the most likely path because Moscow has already rejected ceasefire proposals while still keeping diplomatic channels technically open.
What it moves
- Industrials+0.4%
- Consumer Services−0.2%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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