Possible scenario
Mediation Gains Traction
20% Chance
External mediators push Islamabad and Kabul toward a narrow security arrangement to prevent further retaliation. This path is plausible because both sides face economic pressure and neither benefits from a prolonged border war, even if trust remains low.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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