Possible scenario
Border War Escalates
27% Chance
Islamabad concludes that planners or facilitators operated from Afghan territory and expands military pressure on Taliban-controlled border districts. This is the main escalation path because Pakistan has already declared open war with Afghanistan and may view the attack as proof that deterrence is failing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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