Possible scenario
Rally Extends Further
40% Chance
The most likely path is continued momentum as global investors chase Japan’s governance reforms, AI exposure and relative earnings resilience. The move remains broad but is led by technology, financials and large exporters rather than a single-stock surge.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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