Possible scenario
BOJ Caps Upside
25% Chance
A stronger equity market and resilient domestic demand increase speculation that the Bank of Japan will tolerate higher yields or guide toward further normalization. That does not necessarily end the bull market, but it can reduce appetite for high-valuation growth shares and exporters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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