Possible scenario
Republican Backlash Grows
30% Chance
Republicans successfully frame the proposals as a partisan attack on constitutional norms. The backlash consolidates conservative voters and pushes some independents toward GOP candidates in swing House districts and Senate races.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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