Possible scenario
Protests Spread Nationally
28% Chance
The Delhi detentions become a rallying point for opposition parties and civil-society groups, expanding protests beyond the capital. The Modi government avoids a formal emergency response but leans on state police and preventive detention laws to limit turnout.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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