Possible scenario
Contained Police Crackdown
40% Chance
Security forces continue arrests and crowd-control measures in Delhi, but the protests remain largely confined to the capital and do not trigger a nationwide confrontation. The Election Commission of India keeps the voter re-registration process moving while allowing limited administrative review of deletion complaints.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.