Possible scenario
Shielding Persists Quietly
42% Chance
The most likely path is continued diplomatic containment: U.S. officials avoid forcing Lebanon to arrest or transfer the Syrian general, while Beirut cites legal or security constraints. European prosecutors keep the case alive, but no immediate custody change occurs.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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