Possible scenario
European Legal Escalation
28% Chance
European judicial authorities intensify universal-jurisdiction cases after concluding that U.S. and Lebanese shielding is undermining existing warrants. This creates diplomatic friction but remains mainly a legal and human-rights issue rather than a market-moving geopolitical shock.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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