Possible scenario
Escalation Pressure Rises
18% Chance
Russia frames the strike as evidence of Western-enabled attacks on strategic depth and chooses a sharper response. The most likely escalation remains military pressure on Ukraine, but a smaller branch involves NATO-adjacent risk in the Black Sea or border airspace.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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