Possible scenario
West Bank Unrest
26% Chance
The visit triggers demonstrations across East Jerusalem, Ramallah, Hebron, Nablus, and refugee camps in the northern West Bank. Israeli security forces expand closures and arrests, but the violence remains mainly localized rather than becoming a regional war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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