Possible scenario
Regional Militant Escalation
20% Chance
The provocation is used by Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, or Iran-aligned groups to justify attacks on Israel. This would be a material geopolitical escalation, especially if it involves rockets from Lebanon or disruption risk to energy and shipping routes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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