Possible scenario
Tit-For-Tat Escalation
30% Chance
The bombing of Israeli soldiers and the 36-strike Israeli response become the start of a broader cycle of retaliation. Hezbollah attempts to reassert deterrence after previous retreats, while Israel signals that attacks inside the Litani buffer will be answered with heavier air and artillery operations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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