Possible scenario
Contained Border Retaliation
45% Chance
Israel treats the Hezbollah bombing as a breach requiring a sharp but limited response, while Hezbollah avoids a larger salvo that could invite a deeper Israeli operation. The November 2024 truce framework remains damaged but not abandoned, with both sides continuing limited fire and surveillance along the Litani buffer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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