Possible scenario
Licensed Export Quotas
30% Chance
After industry and allied-government objections, the administration chooses a licensing regime rather than a clean export ban. This still curbs incremental diesel shipments to Europe, but preserves some flows under existing contracts.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- VLO-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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