Possible scenario
Full Ban Starts
45% Chance
The White House moves from study to implementation and announces the first federal diesel export ban, citing record pump prices and low distillate inventories. The most direct impact is on Gulf Coast refiners and exporters that lose access to European and Latin American markets.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.9%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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