Scenario description
Assume that on or before the resolution date, a Philippine resupply, medical evacuation, troop rotation, or other operational access mission tied to the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin Shoal is materially prevented from completing its access objective because of China Coast Guard obstruction. The initiating event occurs in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea around Ayungin Shoal and involves Philippine Navy, Philippine Coast Guard, or supporting Philippine vessels. The known scope is a mission-level interruption to support, resupply, evacuation, or access at the grounded outpost; precise vessel counts, cargo volumes, personnel numbers, delay length, damage, and any diplomatic or military follow-on measures are unavailable unless reported by MarketBrief or official Philippine operational sources by resolution.