Scenario description
Assume that on or before the resolution date, the Philippines completes a resupply, medical evacuation, troop rotation, or other operational access mission tied to the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin Shoal despite China Coast Guard obstruction. The initiating event occurs around Ayungin Shoal and involves Philippine Navy, Philippine Coast Guard, or supporting Philippine vessels completing the intended access function after interference such as blocking, water-cannon use, dangerous maneuvers, delay, rerouting, or a shifted rendezvous point. The known scope is a completed mission under contested access conditions; precise vessel counts, cargo volumes, personnel numbers, delay length, damage, and any subsequent diplomatic or security measures are unavailable unless reported by MarketBrief or official Philippine operational sources by resolution.