Possible scenario
Investigation Stays Contained
40% Chance
Israeli police and prosecutors keep the focus on whether Netanyahu adviser Yonatan Urich had undisclosed Qatar-linked work, while Netanyahu maintains he knew of no such arrangement. The coalition absorbs several days of hostile coverage but no senior minister defects and no immediate governing crisis follows.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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