Possible scenario
Coalition Crisis Emerges
20% Chance
The Qatar adviser scandal compounds existing strains over Gaza, judicial politics, and Netanyahu's credibility. Coalition partners use the controversy to extract concessions or distance themselves, creating a near-term risk of cabinet reshuffle or early-election pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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