Limited Retaliatory Cycle

If U.S.-Israeli strikes resume, Tehran is more likely to respond through proxies, cyber activity, and deniable pressure than an overt attack on U.S. politicians. The result is a controlled but dangerous retaliation cycle involving militias in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and possibly cyber actors linked to the IRGC.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.