Possible scenario
Targeted Prosecutions Continue
40% Chance
DHS and DOJ continue the investigation but the evidence supports a narrow set of prosecutions rather than a broad finding of coordinated fraud. Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi emphasize noncitizen-registration checks and duplicate records, while most state election officials treat the cases as administrative exceptions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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