Possible scenario
Federal-State Conflict Escalates
20% Chance
Several state officials refuse bulk data requests or delay cooperation, arguing that DHS is overreaching into state-run voter rolls. DOJ responds with subpoenas or lawsuits, pushing the issue into a high-profile federalism fight before key 2026 election deadlines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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