Possible scenario
Narrow Divided Result
30% Chance
The Democratic improvement on prosperity narrows the GOP advantage but does not create a decisive wave. Voters blame Trump for inflation, yet local candidate quality and red-state Senate maps keep the national result mixed.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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