Possible scenario
Democratic Midterm Wave
40% Chance
The Gallup swing proves to be part of a broader voter reassessment of Trump-era tariffs, inflation and growth. Democrats capitalize on economic discontent and make the midterms a referendum on the administration's handling of prices and trade.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
- Technology +0.7%
- Energy -0.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.