Possible scenario
Franc Stabilizes Quickly
30% Chance
The franc's drop may already reflect much of the near-term SNB-Fed divergence. Traders take profit on dollar longs, and the market settles into a range while waiting for fresh US inflation, labor-market, or SNB commentary.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.