Possible scenario
Fed Repricing Accelerates
15% Chance
A stronger US data release or hawkish Fed remarks could reinforce the market view that US rates stay higher than Swiss rates. In that case, the franc’s weakness becomes part of a broader dollar-and-yields move rather than a purely Swiss story.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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