Possible scenario
Divergence Trade Extends
45% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the existing policy-divergence trade: the Fed is priced as more hawkish for 2026 while the SNB remains relatively dovish after prior cuts. The move stays orderly and is treated as a currency-market adjustment rather than a systemic macro shock.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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