Possible scenario
Negotiated Maritime De-Escalation
22% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and European maritime insurers push both sides toward a narrow commercial settlement. Iran preserves its reparations narrative, while the U.S. and Israel prioritize ship releases, insurance normalization, and avoiding a Hormuz crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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