Possible scenario
Maritime Retaliation Escalates
29% Chance
Washington and Jerusalem treat the auction as an unlawful confiscation of strategic assets and increase naval pressure around Iranian ports and Hormuz. The highest-risk path involves a clash or temporary shipping disruption, but neither side is assumed to seek a full regional war immediately.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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