Possible scenario
Auctions Stay Contained
36% Chance
Iran proceeds with the auction process but avoids new kinetic moves in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. and Israel respond through sanctions, legal claims, and maritime advisories rather than direct retaliation, keeping the immediate market reaction limited.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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