Possible scenario
Opposition Forms Government
30% Chance
Trump's refusal to endorse Netanyahu strengthens the argument that Likud has become a liability for Israel's U.S. relationship. A former-general-led opposition bloc could assemble a governing coalition around security credibility, judicial restraint, and a diplomatic reset with Washington.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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