Possible scenario
Netanyahu Survives Vote
35% Chance
Benjamin Netanyahu remains competitive because Likud's core voters may treat Trump's neutrality as foreign interference rather than a disqualification. A narrow right-wing victory would likely preserve Netanyahu's political survival but leave his relationship with Washington visibly weakened.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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