Possible scenario
Knesset Deadlock Persists
25% Chance
Trump's non-endorsement weakens Netanyahu but does not decisively transfer votes to the opposition. Israel enters a prolonged coalition bargaining period, leaving Netanyahu as caretaker and delaying decisions on Gaza, Saudi diplomacy, and the budget.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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