Possible scenario
Managed Allied Offset
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the U.S. blockade keeps Iranian exports near zero while Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq continue to lift loadings enough to prevent a disorderly physical shortage. Markets still price a geopolitical risk premium, but the immediate impact is contained by visible allied supply.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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