Possible scenario
Hormuz Escalation
25% Chance
Iran or aligned forces intensify attacks after export flows are cut off, raising the risk that the blockade expands from an Iranian export issue into a broader Gulf shipping crisis. This scenario has a lower probability than managed offset, but it carries the largest immediate oil and risk-asset impact.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.