Possible scenario
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
15% Chance
Regional mediators use the shock of zero Iranian exports to press Tehran and Washington into a narrow maritime de-escalation. The blockade remains formally in place, but a pause in attacks reduces the probability of a wider Gulf supply disruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.7%
- Consumer Services +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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